The Coming Secondary Effects For Cannabis
Good Morning!
We wouldn’t have Walmart without the mass produced automobile. We wouldn’t have rideshare without the iPhone, and the United States wouldn’t have employer-based health care without the Second World War’s labor shortage. These so-called “secondary effects” are the often unanticipated destructions and innovations that become orders of magnitude bigger than the original primary actions.
As shutdowns roll across every aspect of Western society and business, it’s clear that big change is coming. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is calling for a 14-day national shutdown. And looking at the curve of new infections in China versus the rest of the world, it seems likely Americans will have to deal with shutdowns and self-isolation for much longer than just a couple of weeks.
Some secondary effects are easy to predict: Companies that operate live, in-person events will suffer big cash crunches and maybe face bankruptcy. Retail stores with big crowds and lines down the block will have to adjust or die. “Cannabis tourism” is over for a while.
But how long we’ll be living with shutdowns – the CDC thinks it’ll be months rather than weeks – will be the biggest driver of long-term change.
Could the Illinois state legislature decide to legalize cannabis delivery? Will virtual events play a role? How will business deals, often sparked by unexpected interactions at social gatherings, be generated in a world restricted to virtual interaction?
Amy Webb, a “quantitative futurist”, seems to have a pretty strong grip on how to deal with these changes. She recommends scenario planning, using a series of internal and external uncertainties expressed as the two ends of an axis; categorize them under “economic,” “social,” “technological, and regulatory, politics, activism”; set them up on quadrants, and then try to figure out which things are likely to be immediate, near-term, or long-term changes.
I’m writing to tell you a simple truth: you cannot make accurate predictions describing exactly what your industry will look like in 3, 6, or 12 months. I know you’re under pressure to do that right now. Your organizations want new financial projections and accurate timetables. Your senior executives and boards want concrete answers. Your goal right now isn’t predictions. It’s preparation for what comes next. We must shift our mindset from making predictions to being prepared.
What will be the equivalent new Walmart, rideshare, or health care plan? Starting today, we should begin adapting our businesses, rather than just mitigating damage, for the coming secondary effects.
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One more thing: I think we should all be grateful for Indiana’s superintendent of State Police, Doug Carter, who simply says, “Don't get caught. Don’t. Get. Caught.” He doesn’t tell us how, but that’s about the best wink and a nod a Hoosier might ever get from a law officer.
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Oh, and one more thing: Everything’s going to be virtual from now on, so rather than gather business cards and bump into people that we want to add to our email list, we have to depend on the goodwill of strangers to help us spread the word about our little newsletter here. So, punch Coronavirus in the nose by telling people about Grown In.
Chart of The Week: It’s Hard To Know What This All Portends
The temptation of comparative charts is to correlate data points and suggest trend lines. For example, California and Colorado have a few years of legal recreational sales under their belts compared to Michigan and Illinois, which only have a few months, so it’s just a matter of time until Michigan and Illinois have sales proportionate to their populations vis-a-vis California and Colorado.
Sort of?
Comparisons get dicey when you consider that almost three quarters of California municipalities don’t allow recreational sales (most of them far from L.A. and San Francisco) and Illinois and Michigan have barely ramped up possible retail and cultivation licenses. So, in the future it looks like Illinois and Michigan sales could equal or even surpass California.
Maybe?
Last Week’s Illinois Cannabis News
Because it’s a compulsory-obsessive habit, we scour the news across Illinois for what’s going on with cannabis.
March 15
Business takeaways from Illinois’ first day of legal adult-use cannabis sales [Marijuana Business Daily]
'Its location is unique’: Fox Lake approves cannabis dispensary and cultivator on highly traveled Route 12 near Wisconsin border [Lake County News-Sun]
March 14
Inside an Illinois community college where the lesson is cannabis. [Decatur Herald & Review]
March 13
Illinois Extends Deadline for Cannabis License Applications Due to Coronavirus Concerns [Cannabis Business Times]
Cannabis shops take preventive measures in response to coronavirus, report fewer customers yet larger purchases [Marijuana Business Daily]
Buying weed in the age of coronavirus: Marijuana dispensary restricts sales to medical patients [Chicago Tribune]
Cannabis Sales Arguments from Both Sides [Naperville Community Television]
Illinois Unions Make Nice in Push to Represent Cannabis Workers [Bloomberg Law]
March 12
Two Area Businesses Included: Department of Financial and Professional Regulation Announces Round of “Same-Site” Licenses for Adult-Use Cannabis [Metro East Riverbender]
State Approves Permit For Cannabis Sales In Normal [WGLT]
Neighbors Asked To Weigh In On Plan To Bring Cannabis Dispensary To Old Logan Square Bank Building [Block Club Chicago]
March 11
Streator Plan Commission moves marijuana growing facility plans forward [Ottawa Times]
Father, son, arrested in 3-pound Aurora area marjuana bust [Daily Herald]
March 10
Illinois has a major supply shortage of legal cannabis. Could a pipeline to buy product from other states help? [Chicago Tribune]
In early vote, St. Charles aldermen deny recreational pot sales at Zen Leaf [Daily Herald]
March 9
Prices surge for wholesale cannabis flower in Illinois as demand outstrips supply [Marijuana Business Daily]
Alderman Rips ‘Incompetent’ Zoning Board After It OKs Weed Dispensary Despite Neighborhood Opposition [Daily Line]
Cannabis REIT to Invest up to $50 Million in GTI Illinois Cultivation Facility [Newswire]
Cannabis Events Coming This Month
Normally, we’d round up some of the more interesting cannabis events coming up around Illinois. But for now, cancellations are coming fast and furious, so we aren’t listing any events. We’ll take another look next week. But also, if you’re running an event and YOU’RE POSITIVE it’s still going to run, drop a line to mike@grownin.com.